Expectation Gap Analysis
Consensus vs evidence-based projections across 1201 stocks
Live
NVIDIA Corporation
4 beats
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2027 (Apr 2026) EPS (Non-GAAP) | $0.92 | $1.00-$1.05 | +6-17% | 69% beat by 10% |
| Q1 FY2027 (Apr 2026) Data Center Revenue | $33.5B | $36.3B-$38.2B | +6-19% | 77% beat by 10% |
| Q1 FY2027 Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) | 73.5% | 73.9-77.6% | +1-3% | 69% beat by 2% |
| Q1 FY2027 Q2 Revenue Guidance | $46.0B | $49.4B-$51.9B | +6-17% | 77% beat by 9% |
SK Hynix
1 beat
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 HBM Revenue | KRW5.8T | KRW6.6T-KRW7.0T | +10-30% | 77% beat by 16% |
Taiwan Semiconductor
3 beats
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Revenue (USD) | $26.2B | $27.5B-$28.8B | +3-10% | 69% beat by 6% |
| Q1 2026 Gross Margin | 58.5% | 58.8-61.7% | +1-3% | 61% beat by 2% |
| Q1 2026 Advanced Node Revenue Share | 62.0% | 64.2-67.4% | +3-8% | 69% beat by 5% |
Broadcom Inc
2 beats
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 (Apr 2026) AI Revenue | $4.8B | $5.4B-$5.7B | +8-25% | 69% beat by 15% |
| Q2 FY2026 VMware Revenue | $4.0B | $4.3B-$4.6B | +5-15% | 61% beat by 10% |
Meta Platforms
3 beats1 miss
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Total Revenue | $42.8B | $43.9B-$46.2B | +2-6% | 61% beat by 4% |
| FY2026 Capex | $48.0B | $54.3B-$57.1B | +8-25% | 69% beat by 15% |
| Q1 2026 Family DAP (Daily Active People) | 3350.0M | 3377.3M-3548.3M | +1-3% | 53% beat by 2% |
| Q1 2026 Reality Labs Operating Loss | $-4.5B | $-5.4B-$-5.1B | -1-2% | 61% miss by 0% |
PDD Holdings (Pinduoduo/Temu)
2 misses
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Total Revenue | RMB105.0B | RMB88.5B-RMB93.2B | -7-21% | 69% miss by 12% |
| Q1 2026 Temu Revenue | $8.5B | $7.2B-$7.6B | -6-18% | 61% miss by 12% |
Advanced Micro Devices
1 beat2 misses
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Data Center GPU Revenue | $3.8B | $4.3B-$4.6B | +8-24% | 61% beat by 16% |
| Q1 2026 Client Revenue | $1.9B | $1.6B-$1.7B | -5-14% | 53% miss by 11% |
| Q1 2026 Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) | 53.5% | 50.5-53.2% | -1-2% | 53% miss by 2% |
Micron Technology
1 beat
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 (May 2026) Revenue | $9.2B | $10.0B-$10.5B | +5-15% | 61% beat by 10% |
Samsung Electronics
1 miss
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Semiconductor Division OP | KRW7.2T | KRW5.9T-KRW6.2T | -8-23% | 61% miss by 15% |
Marvell Technology
2 beats
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2027 (Apr 2026) Data Center Revenue | $2.4B | $2.7B-$2.8B | +6-19% | 61% beat by 13% |
| Q1 FY2027 Gross Margin | 63.0% | 63.7-66.9% | +1-3% | 53% beat by 2% |
ASML Holding
1 beat
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Net Bookings | EUR5.5B | EUR6.9B-EUR7.3B | +14-41% | 61% beat by 27% |
Intel Corporation
1 miss
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Revenue | $12.8B | $11.7B-$12.4B | -2-7% | 61% miss by 5% |
Qualcomm Inc
1 beat
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 (Mar 2026) QCT Automotive Revenue | $0.8B | $1.0B | +8-23% | 61% beat by 15% |
Alphabet Inc
3 beats
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Google Cloud Revenue | $13.2B | $14.3B-$15.0B | +5-15% | 61% beat by 10% |
| Q1 2026 Search Revenue | $52.0B | $52.8B-$55.5B | +1-4% | 61% beat by 3% |
| Q1 2026 YouTube Advertising Revenue | $9.5B | $10.1B-$10.6B | +3-9% | 53% beat by 7% |
Amazon.com Inc
4 beats
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 AWS Revenue | $30.5B | $31.8B-$33.4B | +3-8% | 61% beat by 6% |
| Q1 2026 North America Retail Operating Margin | 6.8% | 7.4-7.8% | +4-13% | 53% beat by 10% |
| Q1 2026 Advertising Revenue | $15.8B | $16.6B-$17.4B | +3-9% | 61% beat by 6% |
| Q1 2026 International Segment Operating Margin | 2.5% | 3.5-3.6% | +17-51% | 53% beat by 40% |
Salesforce Inc
2 misses
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2027 (Apr 2026) cRPO Growth | 10.0% | 8.2-8.6% | -8-23% | 61% miss by 15% |
| Q1 FY2027 Revenue | $10.2B | $9.6B-$10.1B | -1-3% | 53% miss by 2% |
Netflix Inc
4 beats
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Net Subscriber Additions | 6.5M | 8.1M-8.5M | +13-39% | 61% beat by 26% |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | $10.8B | $11.2B-$11.7B | +2-7% | 61% beat by 5% |
| Q1 2026 Global ARPU | $12.80 | $13.13-$13.80 | +2-6% | 61% beat by 4% |
| Q1 2026 Operating Margin | 29.0% | 30.1-31.6% | +2-7% | 53% beat by 5% |
Tencent Holdings
1 beat
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Gaming Revenue | RMB48.5B | RMB51.4B-RMB54.0B | +4-11% | 61% beat by 7% |
Vertiv Holdings
1 beat
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Revenue | $2.4B | $2.5B-$2.6B | +4-13% | 61% beat by 9% |
Constellation Energy
1 beat
| Factor | Consensus Expects | Evidence Suggests | Stock Impact | Beat/Miss Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Revenue | $5.8B | $6.2B-$6.5B | +4-13% | 61% beat by 9% |
Showing 1–20 of 1201